Friday, September 26, 2008

College Football Betting Picks are Made Here [9/27/08]

Posted by Double M & ADMohr




This is the 3rd installment where me & Mr. ADMohr (of ADMohr twitter fame) bet guess the spread of some intriguing college football games of the weekend. As always, he'll focus on football and I'll focus on other stuff. If you want/need more description, see original post.

Brief side note from MM: Shorty turns 26 today (on the 26th - Golden Birthday Attack!) and I wanted to wish her a quick happy birthday before we get started.

Week 5 of the college football season is upon us and I finally feel like we are starting to get some good games. USC lost last night which has opened the door for all kinds of teams (although if they win out, they will probably still get to the National Championship game). Week 4 saw another dominant effort from me, but it looks like TeenWolf/ADMohr forgot we are in 2008 and not 2003 (you can see our picks here. In any case, here's our results thus far.


An introductory note from ADMohr: Looks like the performance of my picks got lost in the Brospeak translation last week, so this week I'm trying something new again. This week I'll be addressing each team with their appropriate Twitter handle, or what should be their Twitter handle (kind of in the spirit of the Dugout)

Minnesota (+18) @ Ohio State; 11:00 am BTN

ADMohr:
@DOMEisHOME I really didn't like Minnesota's chances coming into this weekend but they've won some crucial games against the White Sox at home and now they have a chance to get into the playoffs. You have to be stunned at the Twins' ability to win and produce great talent from within their system. 4 starting pitchers with an era+ over 100, and the invincible Joe Mauer who scoffs at the challenges of playing catcher all season. I realize I've carried this joke on far too long – but the Gophers are about as easy to figure out at this point of the season as the Twins' continued success.

@PRYORity_quitBoringTheNation Even if Pryor runs into trouble, it's conceivable that even Boeckman could step in and navigate tOSU to a victory in this one, as Minnesota's played respectably this year but seems good for giving up over 350 yards in every game. Ultimately, the Buckeye D doesn't seem very capable of stuffing opponents, and there appears to be a good amount of firepower on the Minnesota offense. Is Pryor/Boeckman good enough for 18 points? Is Minnesota better than Troy?

@Vegas Ohio State covers the spread.

MM: Boy we've decided to really draw you into the post this week with an awesome game, huh? Please don't watch this game unless you really love OSU. Instead, watch videos from an upcoming HBO show "The Life of Times of Tim (seriously click that link and watch them. H/T: Johnny). I've included one below for your enjoyment. OSU wins and covers.


Ole Miss (+22.5) @ Florida 11:30 am

ADMohr:
@Nutt_enough_RESPECT This team is impossible to figure out, you could almost say, one tough Nutt to crack. HEH HEH HEH. But seriously, they've lost by a combined 7 points to opponents they were capable of beating but didn't. Vandy beat the Rebels with only 200 yards of offense, which is hard to figure out until you see how Jevan Snead put up 4 picks. Meanwhile the Gators haven't beat anyone by less than 23 points. So is Ole Miss any better than the respectable teams of Miami and Tennessee that Florida has handled thus far?

@Urban_Heat_Effect What exactly is going on with the Florida offense anyways? Why was A&M able to put up more total yards than Florida (albeit, 362 to 345, but STILL. No Heisman on A&M, obv.) The quality of their opponents is respectable, it's just that it's getting harder and harder to peg Florida as a top 5 team until they have that type of breakout performance. Look for it to come next week against Arkansas, but not this week as I think this one will be about a 10 to 17 point deficit, but not quite enough to cover that spread.

@Vegas Ole Miss beats the spread.

MM: Why is the school called Ole' Miss? Can anyone tell me that? I have a feeling it's racist somehow. I just imagine two old racist hombres saying:
"You member the Ole Miss?"
"Yesum...I 'member."
"You evereckonin we can maybes get the Ole Miss back?"
"Nuhuh."
"Oh."
Anyway, I remember when Old Miss' quarterback went to Texas, got beat out by Colt McCoy, and transferred to Ole Miss. Now he's throwing 4 picks against Vandy. I think Urban Meyer is trying to get Tebow the Heisman again and also get him laid by Erin Andrews, so I think they run up the score. Florida wins and covers.

Tennessee (+6.5) @ Auburn; 2:30 pm CBS

ADMohr:
@FatCoachForHire The Vols' season is already on the line, and despite fairly acceptable statistical performances against UCLA and Florida, they've managed to come away with losses in each, and never really had a shot against Florida. Crompton looks like a liability, Fulmer's on the hot seat (per usual), and the Vols defense probably isn't as good as the one that Auburn saw last week.

@Probably_would_win_theACCorBigEast_forwhateverthat'sworth I'm deathly afraid of a letdown from both LSU and Auburn this week just because it was such a physical, trading blows type of emotional game last week. The bottom line for this game is that the SEC, with the exception of Vandy, has been playing according to expectation thus far, and Auburn's probably going to outgain the Vols without any problems. I wish this spread wasn't 6.5, and the Vols will be playing for their lives.

@Vegas Can't justify any other way to go though, other than Auburn covers.

MM: I think Tennessee is going to take some beatings this year. This is going to be one of them. If this were WWE, Jim Ross would yell "It's a debacle in the ring!" It will be impressive if Tennessee gets the ball past midfield against Auburn. Here's something to ponder while watching this game: Do you think Phil Fulmer has a burrito tucked in between the papers he always keeps rolled up in his hands? I say yes. Auburn wins and covers. In any case, here's an awesome Phil Fulmer/Doughnuts video that's going to get stuck in your head.


Wisconsin (-6) @ Michigan 2:30 pm ESPN

ADMohr:
@I_get_Bret_Bielema_&_Bert_Blyleven_crossedup That's two Twins references now. Wisconsin runs a dominant running game and as long as they're able to establish that running game they're going to be hard to pick against in any Big Ten game. Of course, if they can't – then there could be major problems for an offense that has proven to be capable, but still just doesn't necessarily inspire confidence with Evridge at the helm. This team is so hard to pick just because they're "good" on both sides of the ball – but not necessarily strong enough anywhere other than the running game to project with any sort of certainty.

@DICK-ROD===> Believe me, one of these games, the Dick-Rod offense will click and they'll hang up 50 points on 500 yards, destroy the o/u and leave everyone who picked against them to ask what the hell just happened. They won't sustain that performance, but still – they'll figure it out once, probably just the game that nobody will give them a shot in. But more importantly for this game – the Michigan defense doesn't look really all that bad, and statistically seems to line up similarly to what Wisconsin should bring. Michigan could get up for one of these games they're not supposed to win and actually pull it off provided their offense can NOT turn the ball over and actually capitalize on the yards they seem to rack up each week. They probably won't do this, but they could. So it probably just makes sense to just assume they'll lose each one rather than try to figure out the exception, kind of like picking upsets in the NCAA basketball tournament.

@Vegas. Wisconsin covers the spread.

MM: There's only one Big Eleven Ten team I kinda like: Wisconsin. They play tough defense, have a moderately capable quarterback, and have played a decent game or two in the non-conference. Plus Michigan is not good. Who do you think more upset right now: West Virginia for losing Rich Rod and hiring a boner coach (pictured right) OR Rich Rod who's not going to a bowl this year? I saw WVU because they are f'd for the longterm. Wisconsin wins and covers.

Colorado (+6) @ Florida State; 2:30 pm ABC

ADMohr:
@It's_the_Twitter!_It_Ain't_Facebook!_Go_Play_Facebook_Brother! I solemnly swear that this game will be at least as terrible, if not worse, than last week's Wake-FSU AND CU-WVU eyes-rollers. And they moved this game to Jacksonville? Why? People in Jacksonville are probably furious that this is going to be their ABC afternoon regional game. There will be more scoring in youth league soccer games this Saturday in Jacksonville then there will be at this awful game.

@RememberWhenWeUsedToRespectJimboFisher? FSU turned the ball over 7 times against Wake. You can't possibly turn the ball over 7 times unless you're purposely trying to. Some teams won't even get 7 possessions this weekend. This game exists for two reasons – to ruin pick-em's leagues with this turd of a crap shoot – and to potentially embarrass the Big 12 with a potentially subpar weekend against the ACC. If FSU had turned the ball over 5 times last week, I would say that they probably got unlucky and they shouldn't see as many this week. But 7 turnovers is so many that they might only turn it over 5 times and legitimately view it as an improvement. 7 turnovers suggests to me that their quarterbacks may actually not understand the intent of the game of football.

@Vegas Colorado beats the spread, for absolutely no reason whatsoever.

MM: After Colorado beat West Virginia last week. I guarantee you that Dan Hawkins went back to his office, smoked a bowl, ordered like 3 large pizzas, and put in his 1980's Hulk Hogan Wrestlemania tapes to make sure he says the word "brother" just right (also Erin Andrews went and bitched out her producers for not having a better security detail for her on the field and then went back to her hotel room with her Tim Tebow blow-up doll). This game will be an assault on offense because FSU's defense is really good and their offense is really bad. I'm fairly certain Hawkins will probably get high before this game because he couldn't stand it otherwise. I don't think Colorado can score against FSU's defense, but I'm fairly certain that FSU will let Colorado at least 4 possessions inside FSU's 30. Colorado covers (and probably wins) and Dan Hawkins goes streaking through the quad (required Will Ferrell clip below).


Arkansas (+27.5) @ Texas; 2:30 pm ABC

ADMohr:
@PleaseComeBackDarrenOrFelix Rolled over for 328 yards by the Alabama rushing game??? Were they even trying? Any shot of Arkansas even covering seems to have been completely erased last week as there doesn't seem to be any reason to believe that the 'Backs can even slow down the en fuego Longhorn Offense.

@ReturnoftheMACK There's a liability sitting back there in the Texas defensive backfield as they seem good for about 300 yards passing given up to any competent passing offense. I gave the Arkansas offense the benefit of the doubt last week – they're clearly not there at all and they're not going to find it in this game until they're already down 28. Muschamp's got two games to tune up for OU.

@Vegas Texas covers the spread easily.

MM: I don't like 27 point spreads. Unlike 3.5 point spreads for a team to cover a 27 point spread almost everything has to go right. For instance, Texas will have to score a lot early, their D would have to be unstoppable, and McCoy's backup will have to play well (no pick-6's or fumbles deep in your own territory) because if they get up by 28 in the 4th, Mack Brown will put in the guy backing up McCoy that is fast but can't throw (I'm too lazy to look up his name). I think Arkansas is embarrassed from last week and covers the spread but Texas wins by like 20. But since Texas wins easily, 6th street will be bumping. Unfortunately, the only time I ever saw fights on 6th st. were during the Urban Music Festival (see image in the Ole Miss pick above) and after a UT blowout win on a Saturday. In case you've never seen it, here's what happens when runk people fight:


TCU (+18.5) @ Oklahoma; 6:00 pm FSN

ADMohr:
@You'll_cheer4us_when_we_play_BYU_unless_we're_UnDeFeAtEd Man it's tempting to go with the Hot, Hawt, Haught Mountain West conference right now, and it's even MORE tempting to go with them when you see how dominant their defense has been...

@We_Made_crumbling_under_pressure_of_BCS_games_cool_before_tOSU But before you start teasing yourself too much about TCU upset possibilities, notice how dependent the TCU offense is on establishing the run. And that's not even going to come close to happening in Norman this Saturday night.Also, just can't help but take into consideration how dominant OU was against Cincy and Washington. TCU looks like a better defense, but still, those were top 5 types of performances.

@Vegas Oklahoma covers the spread no problem

MM: In 2005, Oklahoma was in transition after 10 years of Josh White quarterbacking the team and new quarterback (and former wide receiver) Paul Thompson was busy sucking balls. TCU defeated Oklahoma and people were all about the Horned Frogs! Then TCU fell apart later in the year. Fast forward to 2008 - Oklahoma is good again, TCU will be unable to score, and Bob Stoops' team will win and cover. Side note: If this was a bowl game, I would pick TCU to beat the spread and win outright.

Alabama (+7) @ Georgia; 6:45 pm ESPN

ADMohr:
@ChurchOfSaban The team that beat Clemson and Arkansas looks like a team that could play in the SEC title game. But when 'Bama hit a pretty good Tulane defense, they hit a wall offensively and needed swing points to eek out a victory. The key to making the Bama offense work is the establishing of a dominant run game, and against Georgia, that is absolutely not going to happen.

@TheMoreYouKNOWSHON Oh Sh*t everybody black jerseys!!! (I think it's pretty sweet the way they do this, actually.) Question marks about the Dawg defense were pretty much answered last week in a performance at Tempe in which the game was never in question. And question marks about the offense following the game in Columbia now seem to be validating the strength of the Cock defense if anything. Bama is probably a team that should be there soon – but UGA is there NOW. They're stronger on both sides of the ball, and this game should never be in question even if the score may actually be close and low.

@Vegas UGA covers the spread, probably wins by 10 or 13.

MM: The Saban Elephant/Penis hat picture is back by popular demand! Here's how Bama won last week: catch passes thrown by the other quarterback. Georgia won't do that. Also, as ADMohr said, they are wearing their black murderers jerseys. For some reason those jerseys look way cooler than Missouri's or Colorado's. Georgia wins covers the spread.

Illinois (+14.5) @ Penn State; 7:00 pm ABC

ADMohr:
@The_JUICE_but_not_THAT_Juice If this game turns into the shootout that it could be, then The Illini have a fighting chance to win this thing. The offense that burned the Mizzou D for 532 yards (albeit 451 in the air) seems capable of scoring against anyone, but that same team could only manage a 3 point margin of victory vs. La-Lafayette. And to boot the Penn State defense has looked stout enough - against absolutely no opponents of value.

@PapaJoe(81/m/PA) The State offense has been all the talk, and if they're capable of putting up 80% of the offense AND defensive performance we've seen to date, then State should automatically become favorites to come out of the conference. The 2 touchdowns the Illini are getting indicate Vegas is weighting the Ill. performance against Lafayette heavier than the one against Mizzou. For me, that they even had a shot of beating Mizzou says that the potential is real enough that 2 touchdowns is too many.

@Vegas Illinois beats the spread.

MM: Here are the teams that Penn State has played/beaten this year: Coastal Carolina, Oregon State, Syracuse, and Temple. That slate is worse than Nebraska's non-conference schedule. That last sentence is a lie, but they are still really bad. You know what team looked really good against bad non-conference opponents? K State. Then they played someone mediocre and shit hit the fan. Penn State fans: Shit is going to hit the fan. Illinois covers and wins. Side note: Never go to Penn State if you are from another Big 10 school...

Virginia Tech (+7) @ Nebraska; 7:00 pm ABC

ADMohr:
@ShowMeYrGanz There is so much pressure on Ganz, Lucky, and Watson for this game. VT is going to be good for about 280 yards and probably ~20 points, and defensively they're competent but nothing a working Nebraska offense shouldn't be able to handle. Ganz & Co. need a balanced attack that is going to need to score with efficiency. But the offense HAS to win this game for the Huskers. And Nebraska HAS to win this week.

@TyRODandThyStaff VT should take a lot of strength in that the Carolina team they beat last week bears a lot of similarities statistically to what they should meet on the field in Lincoln this week. The game can be won for VT primarily by great QB play by Tyrod Taylor AND (potentially) Glennon. Beamer certainly isn't known for offensive creativity, but he should recognize the weakness in the Nebraska defensive backfield and the general inability of a Pelini defense to handle a scrambling quarterback. There's potentially a golden solution there for VT, but there's really nothing to indicate that they're capable of actually being efficient offensively. VT also has an opportunity to win this game by inducing turnovers defensively.

@Vegas Nebraska wins this game, but they won't cover 7 points, and look for this one to be close late.

MM: Last year I used to have to pick Nebraska games for money and every once in a while, games like this would show up. These games cause me to incoherently ramble. Read: How is Nebraska favored by 7? Who has Nebraska beaten? No one. Has VT looked good? No. But 7 point dogs to a Nebraska team that hasn't played anyone? No. How could Vegas make this line? I thought those guys were smart. Frank Beamer's skin grafts are worth like 10 points and Ganz gets scared of good defenses. This is lunacy. VT covers but Nebraska wins by 3 or 4. Side note: There's a funny video put together by a news station in Nebraska concerning Nebraska's D coordinator. It made me laugh.






And that's the picks for the week. If you gamble, do so legally/responsibly/knowing that you can't hold us responsible. Unless you win, in which case I would like my cut. The picks table is included below. If you have your own picks/thoughts, feel free to include them in the comments.



Have a good weekend.

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