College Football Picks: On Vacation [11/1/08]

Posted by Double M & ADMohr




This is the 8th installment where ADMohr (of ADMohr twitter fame) and I bet guess who wins against the spread of some intriguing college football games of the weekend. As always, he'll focus on football and I'll focus on other stuff. If you want/need more description, see original post.

I'm still hanging out in Austin, TX (although I am driving to Norman today) so my responses are going to be 160 characters or less (text message style). Here are the results from last week:



ADMohr: Pre-picks note of the week: I just wanted to do my duty and let the world of the internet know that the game of the week this week is actually on Friday night - I'm talking about tonight's Wofford (#3) at Appalachian State (#2) Halloween matchup. Take the admohr seal-of-approval on this one, as I solemnly swear this will be an unbelievable game. Wofford comes into Boone averaging 350 yards/game on the ground alone. The Terriers actually had the South Carolina Gamecocks against the ropes late in the 4th quarter, down only 3 before the Gamecocks were able to lead a long drive that put away the game. Meanwhile, Jerry Moore's Mountaineers are somewhat notorious for showing up in Big Games, having won three National Championships in a row and of course they played a competitive game in Ann Arbor with the incredible Armanti Edwards a year ago. (Side funny youtube note from last year's National Championship game against Joe Flacco's Delaware). Anyways your game notes are this - the Winner takes the lead in the ultra-competitive SoCon and likely wraps up a playoff spot, and is one step closer to having pivotal playoff home games. Boone is an impossible place to escape with a win in a big game, and the App Defense seems to be improving after weak performances earlier in the year, but they're going to have to be near-flawless to shut down the unstoppable attack of the Wofford offense. Meanwhile App will rely on playmakers Armanti Edwards and Coco Hillary to diversify the offense through the air while having substantially depleted tailback play, and be forced to score with efficiency while keeping the Terriers off the field. And now, back to your regularly scheduled picks:

Miami (+2) @ Virginia 11:00 AM ESPN-GP

ADMohr: So which one of these initially-overrated and now underrated teams will prove to again be overrated? The Cavs have had one of the most uneven seasons you've ever seen, while at least Miami's losses have at least been predictable. We're going to let it ride on the Cavs and say that they 're going to win and cover in this one.

MM: The winner of this game will likely win the ACC. Both teams suck. Do Not Watch. Virginia wins/covers.

West Virginia (-4) @ Connecticut 11:00 AM ESPN-GP

ADMohr: You may wonder why you need to care about the game. The answer is that the winner of this game takes over first place in the Big East - and that's right - the odds increase that much more that you'll be seeing one of these teams in a Fox Bowl game. West Virginia wins and covers here as last week seems to indicate that the Mountaineers may have turned it around.

MM: The Big East is the only conference worse than the ACC. Awful game. West Virginia wins/covers. Thank God it isn't on national coverage.

Northwestern (+7.5) @ Minnesota 11:00 AM ESPN2

ADMohr: Minnesota, while at best may be looking at 3rd in the Big Ten, it deserves to be noticed how far they've turned it around this year. From a team that lost at home to FCS North Dakota State - and it wasn't considered an upset - to a team that has one loss on the year, I mean I'm just saying it's something to appreciate. I think they'll cover the 7.5 against Northwestern who dropped to Indiana last week.

MM: At the beginning of the season, if you told me this game would have been the Big 10 game on ESPN2, I would have laughed. Big 10 sucks, Minnesota wins/covers.

Tulsa (-7) @ Arkansas 1:00 PM ESPN

ADMohr: Tulsa averaging a grand total of 601 yards total offense a game. Who even cares who the opponents were - that's just an awesome thing to say out loud right there. Tulsa wins and covers.

MM: Tulsa is trying to bust the BCS along with a bazillion other teams in shitty conferences that don't want to play the big boys except in bowl games anymore. Tulsa wins/covers.

Oregon (+3) @ California 2:30 PM ABC

ADMohr: This is the game for 2nd place in the Pac-10, and to suggest that there's some significant distance between 1st and 2nd is probably the understatement of the college football season. The Ducks continue to churn things on the ground, putting up ridiculous rushing totals (see 300+ vs. Arizona State). Looks like the Ducks win and beat the spread in this one.

MM: Oregon put a beat down on the Shockers last week and do the same again this week beating the spread and winning the game.

Florida State (+2.5) @ Georgia Tech 2:30 PM ABC

ADMohr: This game could be a preview of the ACC Championship game later this year, although to be honest at this point there are about 16 different ways this conference could shape out, so don't lose too much sleep about this matchup just yet. Florida State has had generally solid defensive play all season long, while the Yellow Jackets ran into the buzzsaw that is the Virginia Cavaliers last week. It looks like the Seminoles may have things figured out though, and they're going to absolutely need it looking at the remainder of their schedule (Clemson, BC, @Maryland, @Florida). Seminoles win and beat the spread.

MM: Georgia Tech probably lost the ACC last week but should be able to beat a mediocre FSU team that is only ranked b/c they are FSU. GT wins/covers.

Florida (-6.5) vs. Georgia 2:30 PM CBS

ADMohr: The world's biggest cocktail party this year will feature two teams who will sit around and talk about who did a better job of humiliating LSU this year. These teams are rolling as Knowshon @ the rest didn't even flinch in controlling the outcome in Baton Rouge, and meanwhile Florida just destroyed Kentucky last week. A red flag for the Dogs might be how they gave up almost 500 yards to LSU last week, and the Gators bring the unstoppable balance of the strong running game and strong passing game. I keep picking against Georgia and they keep winning, so let's see how many times I can be wrong. Gators win and cover the spread.

MM: Cocktails. Hot chicks. Football. Florida has been thinking about this game since last year. Florida wins/covers.

TCU (-14) @ UNLV 7:00 PM CBSC

ADMohr: Oh snap, mixing things up Mountain West style. What happened to UNLV, they were looking like an underrated team earlier in the year, and they've conveniently dropped 4 straight. The Rebels are quite susceptible to the run, and the Frogs are absolutely rolling on the ground right now, so this one should never be in question. Frogs win and cover the spread.

MM: BCS Buster! TCU (our only loss is against a legit team, take us seriously. please?) wins/covers.

Texas (-3) @ Texas Tech 7:00 PM ABC

ADMohr: This isn't the game of the week, only because Texas can only be the game of the week so many times a year, and we still have a month to go. Each passing week we've said "this might actually be the hardest test for the Horns" and each week, we're probably actually right. While I think last week's OSU cowboys are a more complete team, this one takes the Longhorns away from home for the first time in a while - and let's be completely serious, at some point this schedule has to catch up with them - right? Meanwhile The Fightin' Pirates look like a totally different team than the week squad we saw over the first half of the year. The Rebels are about to unleash their own hell-stretch of a schedule (OSU, @OU) and while their defense made some headlines last week, I think they're going to be humiliated at home this week. Longhorns win and cover.

MM: Game of the week. Tech thinks they can beat Texas but they forget they almost lost to Nebraska at home and let A&M hang with them. Also, Kansas sucks balls. Texas covers/wins large/beats down Tech (sending them into a losing spiral).

Nebraska (+22) @ Oklahoma 7:00 PM ESPN

ADMohr: I legitimately feel that Callahan's throat-slash the last time these teams met (regular season) was one of the greatest things I've ever seen, and as a Nebraska fan it'd personally mean a lot to me if Bo came out calling these fans hillbillies and throat slashing all the way. Nebraska has meanwhile shored a few things up defensively, and the fact that NU was able to put away Baylor in the second half of last week's game honestly says a lot about progress this year. I still think the Huskers are liable to get scorched in this one, but I think this one has more to do with OU defensive weakness than anything else, so I think we look for teh Huskers to beat the spread but lose in this one.

MM: 4 years ago, the line was Nebraska (+30) in Norman (Nebraska covered by running the triple option and then kicking a last second field goal and Callahan throat slashed some refs/players). If nothing else, Vegas thinks Nebraska has gotten better since then. Oklahoma wins/covers.

BONUS MM Pick
Pittsburgh (+4.5) @ Notre Dame 1:30 PM NBC
I just wanted to pick this because I felt like it was the most insightful pick of the week

MM: The Wannstache gets some food caught in his Wannstache pregame that distracts Fatty Weis all game long distracting him from coaching his team. Pitt beats the spread/wins.

Here's the chart.



Happy Halloween and have a great weekend.